16 Predictions for 2013 and Beyond
By Nancy Scott on October 11th, 2012
This is the time of year when everybody throws out predictions. Here are 16 prognostications I picked up across the Internet. As with all predictions, these will be true — more or less, or not at all. Read at your own risk.
1. Who’s gonna be the next marketing gorilla? TV’s control of the marketing pie will continue (36%), but TV will hand off more of the sweets to online advertising, which is predicted to climb to 31% of marketing share by 2016. Mobile will rise several points, too, hitting about 5% in 2016. ~ eMarketer
2. Data-dominated TV will become a reality, with as many as 20% of set-top boxes offering direct, second-by-second viewing data (for example, consider Allstate’s Mayhem-free pitch when it markets renters’ insurance to renters). ~ Advertising Age
3. By 2017, CMOs will spend more on IT than CIOs, suggesting growing importance and control by the marketing department. ~ Gartner
4. Smart agencies will answer the call to deliver more to clients by finding ways to partner with “frenemies” and “cooperative competitors.” ~ Advertising Age
5. Expect Mobile App growth to explode. Period. ~ Business Insider
6. What do people do on mobile devices? Play games, socialize, listen to music, consume content, surf the Net, shop, buy, watch movies, hop to ecommerce sites, look at pictures and video … which means, digital video revenue will explode, too. ~ Business Insider
7. Key CRM trends for 2013 are:
• accessing the consumer (think social, local, mobil, AR and QR marketing)
• replacing push marketing with long-term customer engagement .
~ Nick Johnson, Useful Social Media
8. Use of email will shrink and video – particularly social channels — will become the communications standard. ~ Gareth Case, author of “Inside A Marketing Mind”
9. By 2016, 86% of all global consumer traffic will be video (TV, video on demand, Internet, and peer-to-peer file sharing) . ~ Cisco
10. Ten percent of online “Friends” will be non-human by 2015. Organizations’ increasing systematization of social media strategies will result in the rise of social bots – automated software agents designed to handle interaction with communities of users in a manner personalized to each individual. [Note: I'm not sure how to square this with #7, but maybe my vision is foggy.]~ Gartner
11. Business IP traffic will be growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22 percent from 2011 to 2016. Increased adoption of advanced video communications will cause traffic to grow by a factor of three during this period. ~ Cisco
12. The virtual conference and trade show market will grow at a CAGR of 56% through 2018. ~ Market Research Media, Ltd.
13. Three data warehouse acceleration technologies will push the global data warehouse marketing industry to grow by 8.3% from 2015 to 2020:
• in-memory computing
• FPGA (field-programmable gate arrays)
• GPGPU (general purpose computing on graphics processing units).
14. Social media advertising revenues will grow from $3.8 billion in 2011 to $9.8 billion in 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 21 percent. ~ BIA/Kelsey
15. During the five years to 2017, direct mail advertising revenues are expected to increase, though market share will be threatened by Internet and mobile messaging. Continued consolidation among firms (pegged in July 2012 at 3,035) is expected to cause the number of operators to decline in the five years to 2017. ~ IBISWorld
16. “I cannot see a time when there won’t be direct mail marketing. It’s the single-most effective way of making a sale.” ~ Charles Prescott, executive director, Global Address Data Association
Links to Sources are available upon request.