16 Predictions for 2013 and Beyond

By | October 11, 2012

This is the time of year when everybody throws out predictions. Here are 16 prognostications I picked up across the Internet. As with all predictions, these will be true — more or less, or not at all. Read at your own risk.

1. Who’s gonna be the next marketing gorilla? TV’s control of the marketing pie will continue (36%), but TV will hand off more of the sweets to online advertising, which is predicted to climb to 31% of marketing share by 2016. Mobile will rise several points, too, hitting about 5% in 2016. ~ eMarketer

2. Data-dominated TV will become a reality, with as many as 20% of  set-top boxes offering direct, second-by-second viewing data (for example, consider Allstate’s Mayhem-free pitch when it markets renters’ insurance to renters). ~ Advertising Age

3. By 2017, CMOs will spend more on IT than CIOs, suggesting growing importance and control by the marketing department. ~ Gartner

4. Smart agencies will answer the call to deliver more to clients by finding ways to partner with “frenemies” and “cooperative competitors.” ~ Advertising Age

5. Expect Mobile App growth to explode. Period. ~ Business Insider

6. What do people do on mobile devices? Play games, socialize, listen to music, consume content, surf the Net, shop, buy, watch movies, hop to ecommerce sites, look at pictures and video … which means, digital video revenue will explode, too. ~ Business Insider

7. Key CRM trends for 2013 are:
• customer-centricity
• accessing the consumer (think social, local, mobil, AR and QR marketing)
• replacing push marketing with long-term customer engagement .
~ Nick Johnson, Useful Social Media

8. Use of email will shrink and video – particularly social channels — will become the communications standard. ~ Gareth Case, author of “Inside A Marketing Mind”

9. By 2016, 86% of all global consumer traffic will be video (TV, video on demand, Internet, and peer-to-peer file sharing) . ~ Cisco

10. Ten percent of online “Friends” will be non-human by 2015. Organizations’ increasing systematization of social media strategies will result in the rise of social bots – automated software agents designed to handle interaction with communities of users in a manner personalized to each individual. [Note: I’m not sure how to square this with #7, but maybe my vision is foggy.]~ Gartner

11. Business IP traffic will be growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22 percent from 2011 to 2016. Increased adoption of advanced video communications will cause traffic to grow by a factor of three during this period. ~ Cisco

12. The virtual conference and trade show market will grow at a CAGR of 56% through 2018. ~ Market Research Media, Ltd.

13. Three data warehouse acceleration technologies will push the global data warehouse marketing industry to grow by 8.3% from 2015 to 2020:
• in-memory computing
• FPGA (field-programmable gate arrays)
• GPGPU (general purpose computing on graphics processing units).
~ MarketAnalysis.com

14. Social media advertising revenues will grow from $3.8 billion in 2011 to $9.8 billion in 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 21 percent. ~ BIA/Kelsey

15. During the five years to 2017, direct mail advertising revenues are expected to increase, though market share will be threatened by Internet and mobile messaging. Continued consolidation among firms (pegged in July 2012 at 3,035) is expected to cause the number of operators to decline in the five years to 2017. ~ IBISWorld

16. “I cannot see a time when there won’t be direct mail marketing. It’s the single-most effective way of making a sale.” ~ Charles Prescott, executive director, Global Address Data Association

Links to Sources are available upon request.


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7 thoughts on “16 Predictions for 2013 and Beyond

  1. Maggie Young

    I know these are just predictions, but even so, #8 is surprising to me because I still envision email marketing going strong. And of course, I love prediction #16. Preach it Charles Prescott!

  2. Nancy Scott

    I suspect many would agree with you, Maggie. Email remains strong. Still I’ve heard the “death of email” predicted by more than a few sources. I seriously doubt it will happen in 2013. The information push via email remains a very viable way to build relationships and, yes, sell. A few years out we may see a different pattern … but email will be a solid marketing channel, certainly through next year. I agree with Charles Prescott, too. Direct mail has a special magic … again, for now. Thank you for commenting!

  3. Robert

    #16 I feel is right on target,
    #8 294 billion emails messages per day have clogged the system
    #9 I agree with to, video is the future for quick messaging.

  4. graham

    Regarding e-mail. I suppose it will decline as data plans on cell phones become cheaper and when larger files can be sent via text…which has been the case year after year.

    I e-mail big pictures and videos, I text links to websites.

    E-mail will be, and is, the standard for work, text and other sources will be the standard for play.

  5. Nancy Scott

    That’s a nice distinction, Graham (between work and play). What I hear both you and Robert saying is that consumer use of various channels will be continually refined by both technology changes and customer preference. In this mix, direct mail still has a place and so does email, of course. On the other hand, I would expect unfolding differences in business and personal use to influence how given channels are affected. In other words, video has room to expand outside the entertainment/personal sector and into the business sector. But, considering its somewhat bloated use in the business sector today, does email have the same opportunity for expansion? As options evolve, the *users* will decide. An interesting time to be in business (and alive), yes?

  6. printing guy

    Video will never completely overwhelm the written word. The written word is precise and compact (when well written). It penetrates and is comprehended by the mind directly. Video is more passive, and has an emotional component that muddles a precise message.

  7. Nancy Scott

    I’m not sure, Printing Guy. Video and film *may* be changing the way humans consume information. I hope you’re right and I agree with you that nothing matches the reading experience. Still, sometimes I wonder …

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